Daily Briefing: Ethiopia Blames Sudan and Egypt for the Tigray Uprising as Iran Claims a Second Drone Seizure in Hormuz

Nexa Insight · Daily Briefing

Ethiopia Widens Blame to Sudan and Egypt

I. Horn of Africa

Ethiopia’s military widened its accusations of foreign backing for the Tigray-led rebel alliance to include Sudan and Egypt alongside Eritrea, as fighting pushed further into Afar and Sudan’s army chief separately rejected Washington’s ceasefire terms outright.

1. Ethiopia’s Chief of General Staff, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, said on Friday that the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival — the seven-group coalition led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front — was being “backed, supported and supplied” not only by Eritrea, as Ethiopia alleged earlier in the week, but by Sudan and Egypt as well. (Sources: Associated Press, via ABC News, U.S. News and The Washington Times; Al Jazeera)
2. The Tigray-led alliance said it captured the Afar town of Erebti over the weekend, extending an offensive that began on 20 September. The Associated Press reported hospitals in Korem and Alamata registered more than 420 wounded within 48 hours, on top of roughly 300 wounded received by Suhul Hospital the previous week. Wounded tallies are as reported by local hospitals via the Associated Press and have not been separately confirmed. (Source: Associated Press, via ABC News)
3. Sudan’s army spokesperson called Ethiopia’s accusation “baseless” and countered that Ethiopian territory was instead being used to train and supply the Rapid Support Forces militia fighting Sudan’s own army. Eritrea’s Information Minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, again denied Asmara was arming the alliance. None of the three governments’ claims and counter-claims have been independently verified. (Source: Associated Press, via ABC News)
4. Sudan’s army chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, told a rally at Khartoum Stadium that he did not need a U.S. visa and would not accept Washington’s ceasefire terms as a precondition for one, after the United States withheld his visa for last week’s UN General Assembly session over his refusal to endorse a three-month truce plan. (Sources: Sudan Tribune; Radio Tamazuj; TRT Afrika)

Elsewhere in the Horn: this briefing found no significant new verified developments on Somalia’s AUSSOM mission or South Sudan since our last edition — Riek Machar’s treason trial in Juba remains in recess over the still-unresolved defence security complaint reported previously, with no new hearing date confirmed as of publication.

II. Middle East

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed to have seized a second American underwater surveillance drone in the Strait of Hormuz, a claim Washington flatly denied, as Yemen’s government forces widened their offensive against the Houthis toward the Bab el-Mandeb corridor and Netanyahu made a previously undisclosed visit to the UAE.

1. The IRGC Navy said it had seized an advanced Remus 600-type underwater drone conducting surveillance in the Strait of Hormuz, with the device “now in the hands of the force’s specialists.” U.S. Central Command spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins rejected the claim, saying the U.S. maintains “positive control of all of our operational drone assets” and calling Iran’s account “clearly desperate.” Neither side’s account of the drone’s status could be independently confirmed. (Sources: Al Jazeera; Euronews; Middle East Eye)
2. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported no attacks on shipping in the strait since 23 September, though it noted continued Iranian “intimidation” of transiting vessels; daily oil flows through the waterway remain down to roughly 15–22 million barrels from a pre-war 20 million. Iran’s IRGC separately claimed, without providing evidence, to have “targeted 19 vessels” attempting the transit since 25 September. The 19-vessel claim is Iran’s own and unverified. (Source: Critical Threats Project/AEI, citing UK Maritime Trade Operations)
3. Yemeni government forces widened their offensive against the Houthis around Taiz governorate, including fighting near Jabal Kahbub, which overlooks the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, in what Yemeni and Saudi-backed coalition media described as more than 750 operations since 24 September. Al Jazeera reported more than 146,000 people have been displaced since the fighting resumed in July, and UNICEF has verified 15 children killed, 14 injured and 3 missing since early September. (Sources: Al Jazeera; Critical Threats Project/AEI)
4. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a rare, previously undisclosed visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, meeting UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed; both governments confirmed the meeting focused on bilateral ties. Haaretz separately reported, single-sourced, that Netanyahu had asked bin Zayed to publicly deny an earlier Haaretz report that the UAE had warned Israel ahead of the 7 October 2023 attacks — a characterization Netanyahu’s office denied. (Sources: CNN; Bloomberg; Al Jazeera)

Elsewhere in the region: Israeli strikes killed at least two Palestinians in Gaza City and the Nuseirat refugee camp on Sunday; Gaza’s health ministry puts the overall war death toll above 73,000, with roughly 1,400 killed since the ceasefire took hold a year ago. (Source: Associated Press)

III. The Great Powers

A leaked U.S. account of openness to easing sanctions on Iran collided publicly with President Trump’s own denial, underscoring continued ambiguity in Washington’s approach even as Qatari-mediated talks proceed.

1. Axios reported, citing U.S. officials, that President Trump was willing to offer Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for concrete nuclear concessions, through Qatari-mediated indirect talks; a U.S. official separately told CNN the talks were “positive and constructive” and that Iran had shown flexibility on nuclear issues, though gaps remain over sequencing. (Sources: Axios; CNN)
2. President Trump denied the reporting on Truth Social on Monday evening, calling accounts that he had offered sanctions relief “untrue,” days after he had publicly rejected Iran’s own seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (Sources: Axios; U.S. News & World Report)

Elsewhere among the powers: this briefing found no significant new verified movement from Russia or China on either the Iran war or the Horn of Africa portfolio since our last edition.

Abdinasir Hassan Timoweyne is Chairperson of the Nexa Research and Training Centre and a political analyst specialising in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. He lectures in International Relations at New Generation University.