Daily Briefing: Ethiopia and Eritrea Break Ties, Washington Sends a Third Carrier Toward Iran, and Yemen’s Army Repels a Houthi Push

Nexa Insight · Daily Briefing

A Rupture at the Horn

I. Horn of Africa

Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations after explosions struck near Addis Ababa’s military headquarters and the government banned drone flights over the capital, as federal forces reportedly pushed to within 40 kilometres of Tigray’s capital and hospital sources reported 52 civilians killed around Alamata.

1. Ethiopia ordered ten Eritrean diplomats to leave within 48 hours and said it would close its embassy in Asmara, hours after explosions were heard near the Ethiopian National Defence Force’s Addis Ababa headquarters and intelligence services banned drone flights over the capital. Eritrea’s foreign ministry responded by severing all diplomatic relations, accusing Ethiopia of pursuing “an agenda of incessant hostility,” while Ethiopia accused Eritrea of hosting, training and arming opposition groups it called a direct threat to national security. A source linked to the rebel Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival told reporters the coalition carried out the Addis Ababa strikes, but neither Ethiopia’s government nor independent investigators have confirmed that account, and the Associated Press reported an intelligence official could not yet say whether the blasts were an attack or a training exercise. (Sources: Al Jazeera, citing Reuters; Associated Press, via WRAL; Middle East Eye) Analysis: a confirmed rupture mainly benefits the Tigray-led rebel alliance, which loses nothing from Addis Ababa severing its own channel to Asmara, while Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government loses a diplomatic back-channel and now faces an added security scare in the capital itself.
2. Federal forces have reportedly advanced to within roughly 40 kilometres of Mekelle, with Tigrayan fighters withdrawing to new positions and some leaders evacuating the city, while the government separately claimed to retake the Afar towns of Erebti and Abala — a claim not yet independently confirmed. Afar’s regional governor told Al Jazeera that Eritrean forces are “directly participating” in the fighting and now control two-thirds of the Afar region in an effort to cut the road linking Djibouti and Eritrea; this is a single-sourced allegation from an interested party in the conflict and has not been corroborated by Eritrea, by Ethiopia’s federal government, or by an independent monitor. (Sources: Al Jazeera; allAfrica) Analysis: a verified advance on Mekelle would benefit Addis Ababa by reopening a supply corridor the alliance has held since September; a confirmed Eritrean battlefield role would instead benefit the rebel alliance, by adding an external patron’s firepower, while costing Eritrea internationally by validating the accusation Asmara has spent the week denying.
3. Hospital sources told the BBC that at least 52 civilians were killed and more than 700 wounded over three days of fighting around Alamata, with Doctors Without Borders (MSF)-supported facilities across Tigray treating the wounded. The federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front accuse each other of violating the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, and communications disruptions in the area are preventing fuller independent verification of the toll. (Sources: BBC, via Africanews; Médecins Sans Frontières) Analysis: the civilian toll weakens Addis Ababa’s claim to a restrained campaign and strengthens the rebel alliance’s case before international audiences, even though the alliance’s own operations around Alamata are also contributing to the casualties.
4. UNHCR says more than 55,000 Sudanese have fled into Chad so far this year, with roughly 400 people a day crossing over the past week, as Sudan’s civil war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces continues without a ceasefire or a resumed political track. (Sources: UNHCR; Al Jazeera) Analysis: the exodus mainly costs Chad, whose government and host communities are absorbing the strain; it benefits neither Sudanese belligerent directly, though the RSF’s continued contest of Darfur and Kordofan remains the proximate driver of the latest wave.

Elsewhere in the Horn: South Sudan’s Special Court had not yet ruled, as of this writing, on the procedural disputes delaying Riek Machar’s trial that were due Friday — this briefing will follow up once a ruling is issued. This briefing found no significant new verified developments on Somalia, AUSSOM, or Somaliland since yesterday’s edition.

II. Middle East

Yemen’s army said it repelled a major Houthi offensive south of Taiz as Iran weighed Washington’s response to its plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and investigators said the flydubai hijacking suspect may have been radicalised.

1. Iran’s government said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has received Washington’s formal response to Tehran’s Qatari-mediated seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani did not disclose its contents or Iran’s next step. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran was “making every possible effort” to preserve the underlying Islamabad memorandum. Qatar’s prime minister said separately his country remains committed to mediating despite what he called an unprecedented attack on a mediating state. (Sources: Middle East Monitor; The Peninsula Qatar) Iran’s substantive response to the US counter-offer remained undisclosed as of this writing.
2. Yemen’s army said it repelled a major Houthi offensive south of Taiz, reporting at least 30 Houthi fighters killed and dozens more wounded or captured in fighting across multiple fronts, including Al-Aqrud, Bani Bakari and Jabal Han. A military spokesman rejected Houthi claims of territorial gains, though residents said Houthi fighters reached the Hayjat al-Abd road; an International Crisis Group analyst said the Houthis appear to be trying to cut the Taiz–Aden highway and isolate the city. (Sources: Arab News; Anews) The casualty figures are the Yemeni government’s own account and have not been confirmed by the Houthis or an independent source.
3. An Omani official confirmed to CBS News that the co-pilot who allegedly tried to hijack flydubai flight FZ1073 to Tel Aviv on Tuesday is an Omani national. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, said information gathered in questioning indicated the co-pilot underwent “Islamist radical indoctrination,” though they provided no supporting evidence; Saudi Arabia is reportedly transferring the suspect to the UAE for further questioning, with Israeli investigators expected to take part. (Source: CBS News) The radicalisation claim rests solely on statements by Israeli officials, an interested party in the case, and has not been independently corroborated.

Elsewhere in the region: this briefing found no significant new verified developments on Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria since yesterday’s edition.

III. The Great Powers

The Pentagon moved to restore a third carrier strike group to the Middle East for the first time since 2003, as Qatar reaffirmed its mediating role despite what it called an unprecedented attack on a mediating state.

1. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group left San Diego on 1 October, and the Pentagon is weighing sending it to the Gulf alongside the Makin Island amphibious group and its roughly 2,200 Marines — a move that would restore three full carrier strike groups to the Middle East, joining the USS George Washington and USS George H.W. Bush groups already deployed, and add up to 10,000 sailors and Marines to the region. Two US officials said the deployment would give commanders more options should President Trump choose to escalate against Iran; Trump said Wednesday the US still has to decide whether to “blow them up or make a deal,” adding Washington has “almost total control” of the Strait of Hormuz, which he said could change if Iran laid mines. (Sources: Bloomberg; The Jerusalem Post, citing a US official and USNI News)
2. Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said Doha “cannot be just sitting silent” and remains committed to mediating the Hormuz, Gaza and Sudan files, citing Qatar’s record of past mediation between Eritrea and Djibouti, in Sudan, and between Afghanistan and the United States. He called recent attacks on Qatar while mediating “unprecedented” in the history of such conflicts. (Source: The Peninsula Qatar)

Elsewhere among the powers: this briefing found no significant new verified movement from Russia, China, or on China-Taiwan tensions since yesterday’s edition.

Abdinasir Hassan Timoweyne is Chairperson of the Nexa Research and Training Centre and a political analyst specialising in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. He lectures in International Relations at New Generation University.